Comments on: There’s a 60.9% Chance Interest Rates Won’t Change Next Month - Bayesian Classification of Fed Statements http://www.blendedtechnologies.com/theres-a-609-chance-interest-rates-wont-change-next-month-bayesian-classification-of-fed-statements/152 Established January 2005 Fri, 25 Jul 2008 10:30:01 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0 by: evelyn http://www.blendedtechnologies.com/theres-a-609-chance-interest-rates-wont-change-next-month-bayesian-classification-of-fed-statements/152#comment-20463 Fri, 02 Nov 2007 16:46:35 +0000 http://www.blendedtechnologies.com/theres-a-609-chance-interest-rates-wont-change-next-month-bayesian-classification-of-fed-statements/152#comment-20463 No, I hadn't updated. I'll give that one a try. Thanks! No, I hadn’t updated. I’ll give that one a try. Thanks!

]]> by: Greg - CEO/Founder http://www.blendedtechnologies.com/theres-a-609-chance-interest-rates-wont-change-next-month-bayesian-classification-of-fed-statements/152#comment-20413 Wed, 31 Oct 2007 20:16:12 +0000 http://www.blendedtechnologies.com/theres-a-609-chance-interest-rates-wont-change-next-month-bayesian-classification-of-fed-statements/152#comment-20413 Yeah, the model was pretty off for this month. Did you use the <a href="http://www.blendedtechnologies.com/fedbayes-models-updated-with-latest-fomc-statements/174" rel="nofollow">latest model</a> for these predictions? Yeah, the model was pretty off for this month. Did you use the latest model for these predictions?

]]> by: Evelyn http://www.blendedtechnologies.com/theres-a-609-chance-interest-rates-wont-change-next-month-bayesian-classification-of-fed-statements/152#comment-20411 Wed, 31 Oct 2007 19:46:22 +0000 http://www.blendedtechnologies.com/theres-a-609-chance-interest-rates-wont-change-next-month-bayesian-classification-of-fed-statements/152#comment-20411 The forecast, after adding the October Statement (which lowered rates an additional .25% to 4.5% is: Prediction for rate change: [('0', 0.45220429695537889), ('0.25', 0.39520799597082201), ('-0.5', 0.1873814776692021), ('-0.25', 0.0048850804754397292), ('0.5', 0.00044497458812392532)] Prediction for if rate will change: [('No Change', 0.45220429695537889), ('Increase', 0.41304520169354481), ('Decrease', 0.20332618490924276)] The decrease this month, although widely expected according to the press, was not predicted by the model last month. Though, I did say anything could happen. The likelihood of no change is about the same as last month, that of an either an increase or a decrease have both gone up. After two decreases in a row, I'd bet on no change. The Fed doesn't like to give equivocal signals. The forecast, after adding the October Statement (which lowered rates an additional .25% to 4.5% is:

Prediction for rate change:
[(’0′, 0.45220429695537889), (’0.25′, 0.39520799597082201), (’-0.5′, 0.1873814776692021), (’-0.25′, 0.0048850804754397292), (’0.5′, 0.00044497458812392532)]
Prediction for if rate will change:
[(’No Change’, 0.45220429695537889), (’Increase’, 0.41304520169354481), (’Decrease’, 0.20332618490924276)]

The decrease this month, although widely expected according to the press, was not predicted by the model last month. Though, I did say anything could happen.

The likelihood of no change is about the same as last month, that of an either an increase or a decrease have both gone up. After two decreases in a row, I’d bet on no change. The Fed doesn’t like to give equivocal signals.

]]> by: Ames Tiedeman http://www.blendedtechnologies.com/theres-a-609-chance-interest-rates-wont-change-next-month-bayesian-classification-of-fed-statements/152#comment-19293 Sat, 22 Sep 2007 17:52:04 +0000 http://www.blendedtechnologies.com/theres-a-609-chance-interest-rates-wont-change-next-month-bayesian-classification-of-fed-statements/152#comment-19293 In the U.S. interest rate are going lower, Gold is going higher, Oil is going higher, inflation is going higher, the dollar is going lower. What is wrong with this? Everything! At some point the FED is going to have to raise rates bigtime. We are in a very, very, precarious situation at the moment. I think Gold will tripple to over $2,000 an ounce when the market finally wakes up and sees the real inflation. Last I checked a lower dollar = higher import prices. There is no inlfation deflator here. With commoditioes on fire you can forget about that. Bernanke should have never lowered rates last week. However, the Fed might be doing something that few have talked about. Maybe the Fed has abandoned the dollar the crush teh trade deficit. Good luck, it will take 20 years to correct our 6% of GDP trade deficit and move it back to under 1% of GDP, unless you want to seriously disrupt the global economy. We are in for tough times people. Very tough! In the U.S. interest rate are going lower, Gold is going higher, Oil is going higher, inflation is going higher, the dollar is going lower. What is wrong with this? Everything! At some point the FED is going to have to raise rates bigtime. We are in a very, very, precarious situation at the moment. I think Gold will tripple to over $2,000 an ounce when the market finally wakes up and sees the real inflation. Last I checked a lower dollar = higher import prices. There is no inlfation deflator here. With commoditioes on fire you can forget about that. Bernanke should have never lowered rates last week. However, the Fed might be doing something that few have talked about. Maybe the Fed has abandoned the dollar the crush teh trade deficit. Good luck, it will take 20 years to correct our 6% of GDP trade deficit and move it back to under 1% of GDP, unless you want to seriously disrupt the global economy. We are in for tough times people. Very tough!

]]> by: Greg - CEO/Founder http://www.blendedtechnologies.com/theres-a-609-chance-interest-rates-wont-change-next-month-bayesian-classification-of-fed-statements/152#comment-19271 Sat, 22 Sep 2007 01:30:29 +0000 http://www.blendedtechnologies.com/theres-a-609-chance-interest-rates-wont-change-next-month-bayesian-classification-of-fed-statements/152#comment-19271 Thanks, Efm. I agree, it sounds like anything could happen. Keep in mind the model should be more accurate if we update it with all of the Fed statements since I originally wrote the script. I'll try to do that this weekend. Thanks, Efm. I agree, it sounds like anything could happen. Keep in mind the model should be more accurate if we update it with all of the Fed statements since I originally wrote the script. I’ll try to do that this weekend.

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